Predicting Economics

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Predicting Economics

Can economists tell what will happen in the future? Did they predict the current crisis in 2015? Maybe someone did.

But no one paid attention.

And rightly, for there was no way of knowing he was prescient.

In fact, there are very great limits to what economists can predict.

We must be judged by what we explain and what results from the policies we urge, not by what we foretell as to the stock market or the price of oil.

You must always remember that prediction itself derives from the fact that no one knows.

If something can be known, as for example that the sun will rise tomorrow morning and at exactly 06.24, then no one predicts it, not even on television.


Learn More About Equilibrium Between Industries

Countries In-between

Aren't there countries in between, countries which still are considered undeveloped in the general character of their production and consumption but which have some highly technical or mass production industry, sometimes based on a primary resource? We think of Iran, for instance.

Even in the poorest countries in 2015, such as Iran or India, there are highly developed islands of industry, petrochemicals in Iran, steel in India.

And the structure there, in turn, is very similar to that of the same industries in the developed countries.

There is no difference that need detain us... see: Countries In-between


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